![]() A while ago I had heard of the "poker book" Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke, and I just recently finished reading it. It isn't really a book about poker; it's a book about decision science and how to make good/better decisions under uncertainty (i.e., pretty much all the time). It was a nice summary of big lessons from a lot of other books like Thinking Fast and Slow that talk about the various types of cognitive mistakes we are susceptible to. I actually wished it had more juicy poker "guts" in it; while it had various stories and anecdotes, I wished there were more lessons drawn specifically from techniques or concepts poker players use or have developed. I would've gotten more out of this book compared to others like it if it had more of those "inner secrets" from poker; even without those, it was still an enjoyable and useful book. My major notes and takeaways from the book are below. Intro: why this isn’t a poker book
Bet is decision about uncertain future Outcome quality vs decision quality 1 life is poker not chess Resulting: confusing quality of outcome for quality of decision Hindsight bias Reflexive vs deliberative mind Von Neumann game theory I’m not sure is best response to many things 2 wanna bet Make explicit that all decisions are bets Betting against other future versions of ourselves The better/more accurate our beliefs, the better our bets Hearing is believing by default Preexisting beliefs change what we see Being smart makes it worse Being asked to bet on something makes you examine beliefs more and be more objective Express beliefs as probabilities 3 bet to learn Outcomes are feedback Belief > bet > set of outcomes Learning loop Separate luck from skill Intermittent variable rewards manipulate Self serving bias: blame losses on luck and wins on skill. Limits learning from experience “If it weren’t for luck, I’d win every one” “You can observe a lot by watching”. Don’t have to pay to learn yourself. Better to deconstruct own mistakes even when do well reshaping habit Cue then routine then reward To break habit, keep cue and reward but insert new routine 4 buddy system Good decision group, mentors Truth seeking pod Formal dissent channel 5 dissent to win Merton CUDOS Communal ownership of data Universalism: don’t judge message by messenger Imagine getting same message from opposite type person Or hide who messenger is Disinterestedness Outcome blindness Don’t tell someone how story ends Reward people for disagreeing and argue other side Skepticism Anonymous dissent channel Recruit devil's advocate Express uncertainty when communicating I agree with you that in certain circumstances X (agreeing view) and … Y (opposing view) Find out if people just want to vent or ask for advice Focus on what to do better going forward 6 adventures in mental time travel Imagine impact on future self 10/10/10 Consider impact on self in 10 minutes, 10 months, 10 years Don’t look at life through in the moment zoom lens. Consider big picture more The way we feel about outcomes is path dependent Zoom lens of recent past distorts Tilt in poker: when recent history affects mood and emotions take over good decision making Precommitment contracts like Ulysses who asked to be tied to mast with wax in ears Ulysses Contract Decision swear jar Illusions of certainty Irrational resulting Moaning about bad luck Generalizations about personality Echo chamber “Wrong” Scenario planning Backcasting: working backwards from desired goals Premortems: working backwards from negative future
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