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Readings and musings

Notes on Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman

10/29/2015

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I just finished reading Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, and I absolutely loved it. I think you can tell based on the sheer quantity of notes I took, and I try to only take notes on things that are new or noteworthy for me personally (and I've read a lot of psychology and behavioral economics literature before).

I think this book is the most comprehensive and clear coverage of the field I've seen to date. No wonder so many people reference it and recommend it.

I found a lot of similarity in this book to Antifragile and some of Taleb's other books (and Kahneman references Taleb several times in this one).

So many good ideas in here, so many interesting experiments, and such a thorough treatment of cognitive biases, rational decision-making under uncertainty, the remembering vs. experiencing self (and how memories can be manipulated), and so many other interesting topics.​

Intro
  • Expectations of intelligent gossip about us by others is motivation
  • Systematic errors

Origins
  • Studying intuitive statistics with tversky
  • Skill and heuristics both sources for intuition
  • Intuition is about recognition
  • When question is difficult, we usually just answer the easier question and don't notice the substituting
  • System 1 fast and 2 slow

Part 1: 2 systems

Ch 1: the characters of the story
  • System 1 produces the beliefs for system 2
  • 2 needs constant attention and focus to work
  • Focusing attention can make people blind
  • We are also blind to our blindness
  • 2 turns on when 1 is surprised
  • 1 has biases
  • 1 cannot be turned off
  • 2 is in charge of self control
  • Cannot prevent system 1 for falling for illusion even if u know different
  • Cognitive illusions also
  • Easier to see mistakes in others than yourself
  • System 1 and 2 fictitious concepts

2 attention and effort
  • 2 is lazy
  • Mental effort
  • Pupils dilate with mental effort
  • Pupils as index for amount of mental effort in real time
  • Law of least effort: people do whatever is minimal effort
  • 2 only one that can deal with multiple things at once and conscious combination of rules
  • Most effortful form of slow thinking is when u have to think fast

3 the lazy controller
  • Self control is also mental work
  • 1 has more influence on behavior when 2 is busy
  • Self control requires effort
  • 2 runs self control of thoughts and behavior
  • Ego depletion
  • Flow
  • Restoring glucose (real not Splenda) to brain restores ego depletion
  • Lazy system 2
  • 2 checks if 1 is making a mistake
  • Many ppl overconfident in intuitions and avoid mental effort too much
  • Cognitive control linked to intelligence

4 associative machine
  • Associative activation from simple unconnected words
  • Body reacts to words as if reality
  • U think with your body
  • Ideometer effect: priming affects physical action
  • Reciprocal priming: moving quickly makes you less likely to think of old age; forcing smile or frown by accident affects emotions

5 cognitive ease
  • Illusion of familiarity when looks clearer and more familiar things look clearer
  • Illusion of truth: familiar answers seem true
  • Things that make brain run easily feel true
  • Repetition creates truth
  • Increase legibility
  • Increase contrast of text
  • Make message simpler
  • Put message in rhyming verse
  • Quote people with names easy to pronounce
  • Creativity as strong associative memory
  • Happy subjects better at intuition and system 1

6 norms, surprises, and causes
  • Normality of events affected by memory of prior similar events
  • Pattern affects view of normality
  • Shared cultural norms about objects and world in system 1
  • Automatic search for causality
  • Need for coherence and narrative

7 machine for jumping to conclusions
  • When uncertain, system 1 bets on an answer
  • Unbelieving is a function of system 2
  • When system 2 is busy (and it is always lazy), we will always believe anything
  • Confirmation bias: people seek data to confirm beliefs not refute them
  • Halo effect: if like someone then like things from them
  • Evidence from first impression lingers and snowballs
  • Sequence of getting information matters; latter info discounted
  • Decorrelated error: wisdom of crowd in evaluating same data but must be independent and see same info separately
  • Before group discussion ask individuals to review separately and write down own conclusions
  • What you see is all there is: jumping to conclusions based only on info u see but ignoring info u don't have yet
  • Overconfidence
  • Framing effects
  • same info presented differently understood differently
  • Base rate neglect: specific details more memorable than base statistical info unstated

8 how judgments happen
  • Basic assessments from system 1
  • How things going
  • Threats
  • Anything special
  • Escape or approach
  • Shape of face tells dominance
  • Facial expression tells trustworthiness
  • Ability to assess strangers instantly
  • Voters follow facial features seen as competent within 1 second glance (explain 70% of election results)
  • Sets and prototypes
  • System 1 easily does average visually and also count of objects when around 4-5
  • System 2 needed to do summation
  • Intensity matching: 1 can do quickly
  • Mental shotgun: we often compute more than we need
  • 1 does more than 2 needs it to
  • Prompt to do one thing often leads automatically to doing or thing something else

9 answering an easier question
  • Ppl rarely stumped
  • Have opinions about everything even when don't understand
  • Substituting questions
  • Target question too hard but heuristic question is similar but which u do know
  • Heuristic questions usually about your feelings
  • 3D heuristic: 3D interpretation of flat printed images; true illusions
  • Substitution of 3 dimensions for 2
  • Mood heuristic for happiness
  • Happiness difficult thing to evaluate in self
  • Present state of mind affects Current view of ur happiness
  • Affect heuristic: liking something affects how u see it
  • Personality of system 2

Part 2 heuristics and biases

10 law of small numbers
  • 1 very quick at identifying causes and patterns even when sample size too small
  • General statistics hard for 1 to integrate
  • Small samples yield extreme results much more likely than larger samples
  • Simple statistical fact, no causal connection to be inferred; nothing to explain
  • Accident of sampling
  • Artifacts: observations purely due to method of sampling and size
  • Law of small numbers: experts pick samples too small for research
  • Statistical intuitions very poor
  • Bias of confidence over doubt
  • Ppl are not adequately sensitive to sample size
  • We pay more attention to story than source
  • 1 cannot distinguish levels of belief
  • Only 2 is capable of doubt
  • Associative machinery seeks causes
  • Random processes produce sequences that convince people that the processes are not random but the people are wrong
  • Small schools not better on average; just more likely to produce extreme outcomes

11 anchors
  • When people consider a particular value for an unknown quantity before estimating that quantity
  • Anchoring as adjustment process
  • Insufficient adjustment
  • Adjustment from reasons to move away from anchor
  • When ppl tired they adjust less from anchor; adjustment is function of system 2
  • Anchoring is case of suggestion
  • Suggestion is a priming effect through associative machinery that creates errors

12 the science of availability
  • Availability heuristic: judging frequency by the ease by which instances come to mind
  • Substitute one question for another
  • Vivid examples more available
  • Largest role to fluency/ease of generating instances
  • Retrieval of final instances difficult when need la GE number and causes low ease and thus self rating of worse in that area
  • Ease of generating instances is Shteyn 1

13 availability, emotion, and risk
  • Affect heuristic: substituting easier question "what do I feel" for harder question "what do I think"
  • Availability cascade creates overreaction and craze
  • Probability neglect creates gross exaggeration of unlikely events

14: Tom W's speciality
  • Using base rate information when don't have any more specific info
  • Stereotypes affect rankings of likelihood
  • Stereotypes automatic activity of 1
  • Predicting by representativeness
  • Ignoring base rate or veracity of description
  • Even if told that info is false, it is hard to ignore it
  • When u know info is false then just stay close to base rates
  • Bayes rule for how to combine new info into prior belief

15 Linda less is more
  • Incompatibility of heuristics with logic
  • Conjunction fallacy: belief that a and b more likely than a
  • Confusing plausibility with probability
  • Less is more
  • Direct comparison makes people more logical

16 causes trump statistics
  • Statistical base rate information is often ignored
  • But causal base rate information is easy to incorporate such a stereotypes
  • Social norm against stereotypes is not cost less
  • People who learn about experimental findings ignore surprising conclusions when considering themselves or others close to them
  • Surprising statistical facts don't educate
  • Surprising anecdotes do stick
  • Inferring from specific to general a lot stickier
  • Surprising individual cases much more persuasive than statistics

17 regression to the mean
  • Rewards from improved performance better than punishments for mistakes
  • Attaching causal interpretations to random fluctuations
  • Feedback we get is often reversed
  • Success is talent plus luck
  • Hard for people to understand regression because not causal explanation
  • Extreme groups regress to the mean more
  • Need control group

18 taming intuitive predictions
  • Nonregressive intuition
  • We are good at rejecting completely unrelated info but bad at evaluating quality of related evidence
  • Need to correct intuition for regression to mean

Part 3 overconfidence

19 illusion of understanding
  • Narrative fallacy from taleb
  • Halo effect in narratives
  • human mind doesn't deal well with nonevents
  • Luck plays bigger role in event than in its rebelling
  • Easier to construct a story when you know less facts about it
  • Don't use word "know" for predicting events
  • Future not knowable
  • Past easily altered when get surprised; easy to forget what u believed before
  • Hindsight bias
  • Outcome bias when evaluating decision
  • Lucky leaders not punished for taking too much risk

20 the illusion of validity
  • Keep feeling like our predictions are accurate even when he got opposite evidence
  • Declarations of high confidence just mean that person created coherent story but not that it's true
  • Skill can only be demonstrated by consistent performance in multiple trials over time where the role of luck will cancel out
  • Illusion of skill in stock picking
  • 0 correlation from year to year of same advisors
  • Expert not better than non-specialist at forecasting
  • Illusion of skill

21 intuitions vs formulas
  • Simple algorithm beats experts
  • Checklists and simple rules better
  • People resist to synthetic algorithms instead of human touch
  • Must first collect objective facts about past during interview along concrete scales and then afterwards check intuition
  • 6 dimensions which are independent
  • Score on each from 1-5
  • Collect info on one trait at a time
  • Resist desire to hire someone u like more; higher one with best score

22 expert intuition: when can we trust it
  • Expertise takes thousands of hours to develop
  • Ability to recognize patterns
  • Intuitions valid when environment is regular and opportunity to learn over time patterns
  • Statistical algos better in noisy environments
  • Quicker and better feedback builds skills faster

23 outside view
  • Inside view: focusing more on particulars than historical cases and base rate
  • Not considering unforeseen circumstances and simply extrapolating from known limited experience too optimistic
  • Planning fallacy: unrealistically close to best case scenario
  • Must use distributional information from past similar cases as main estimate
  • Reference class forecasting
  • Irrational exuberance to keep holding on to failing endeavor
  • Sunk cost fallacy

24 engine of capitalism
  • Optimistic bias
  • Entrepreneurial delusions
  • Overconfidence
  • Premortem as partial solution
  • Write speech about disaster of plan before u do it
  • Legitimizes doubt and search for threats

Part 4 choices

25 bernoulli's errors
  • People don't value uncertain prospects by expected value
  • Risk averse decision making
  • Pay premium to avoid uncertainty
  • Diminishing marginal utility of wealth
  • But theory also flawed because happiness is reference dependent and based on recent changes to wealth not just total
  • Context matters
  • More likely to take risks when all options are bad
  • Theory induced blindness

26 prospect theory
  • Different preferences if considering gain or loss
  • Risk seeking when facing losses
  • Need to know reference state and delta
  • Weigh losses twice as much as gains

27 endowment effect
  • Omission of reference point of current wealth in indifference curve
  • Loss aversion creates status quo effect
  • Owning a good increases its value
  • Huge spread in personal price bid/ask is due to endowment effect
  • Price depends on reference point of having or not having the object
  • Goods held for exchange different from goods held for use

28 bad events
  • Have built in automatic super fast mechanism to recognize threats in system 1/amygdala
  • Goals as reference points

29 four fold pattern
  • Certainty effect: much more valuable to achieve certainty
  • Overweighting small probabilities
  • Allay's paradox: we value certainty at a premium and don't just use expected utility
  • Prospect theory converts probability percentages into decision weights that rise nonlinearly
  • Possibility effect: rare events are over weighted

30 rare events
  • Emotion disproportionate to probability
  • Denominator neglect due to vivid imagery
  • Stating frequency in absolute terms out of 1000 or whatever feels different from probability

31 risk policies
  • See gambles as small ones that will repeat to minimize loss aversion
  • You win a few, you lose a few
  • Broad framing
  • Think like a trader
  • Better to have risk policy like broad frame instead of deciding each case by case
  • Outside view as broad frame for thinking about plans
  • Evaluate portfolio only once per quarter

32 keeping score
  • Mental accounts irrational
  • Disposition effect: more likely to sell winners than losers
  • Sunk cost fallacy
  • Departure from default is what produces regret
  • Favors risk averse choices

33 reversals
  • Joint or comparison evaluation places emphasis on different features than standalone single evaluation
  • Judgments may be coherent within categories but not across categories
  • Joint evaluation Better

34 frames and reality
  • Frames are reality
  • Moral opinions are based on specific descriptions, not states of reality
  • Opt out vs opt in

Part 5 two selves

35 two selves
  • Experienced utility
  • Duration doesn't affect rating of pain, just intensity
  • Peak end average
  • Ending of procedure affects rating
  • Confusing experience with memory of it
  • Memory stores peak and end, not area under curve of pain/time graph
  • Duration neglect

36 life as a story
  • A story is about significant events and moments, not about time passing so duration neglect makes sense
  • Ending is what is remembered
  • Desire endings to be good
  • Narrative of life
  • Caring for people is more for their stories than their feelings
  • People choose by memory whether or not to repeat something rather than by actual experience at the time
  • You are your remembering self. Your experiencing self is like a stranger to you.

37 experience well being
  • Well being experience determined by what we pay attention to

38 thinking about life
  • Current mood affects evaluation of life
  • Available ideas determine this too
  • Nothing in life is as important as it is when ur thinking about it in the moment
  • Focusing illusion
  • Affective forecasting: assume current state will last forever

conclusions
  • Two systems: 1 and 2
  • Two species: econs and humans
  • Two selves: experiencing and remembering
  • Libertarian paternalism through nudges and framing

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The Picture of Dorian Gray: A picture of beauty and art in life and writing

10/9/2015

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Introduction

The seventh selection of Half Half Man’s book club was Oscar Wilde’s The Picture of Dorian Gray. It was a haunting and chilling book for me to read. I didn’t particularly like the subject matter or the plot development; I kept getting angry at the characters (but maybe the author’s intention was indeed to provoke strong emotion). What I did enjoy were the themes of beauty and art that the book brought up, as both relate directly to magic. And I thoroughly appreciated the actual beauty and art present at the meta-level of the book’s writing itself.


The role of beauty in the book’s content

Beauty seemed to me to be the central character of the book (not Dorian). It became Dorian’s mission in life, for which he traded his moral character and soul and towards which he sought any and every experience. Chapter 2 presented the dichotomy between beauty and intellect, and while such a contrast was likely meant to evoke strong emotion and show how many of Lord Henry’s principles were meant to be contrarian for the sake of being contrarian, it still didn’t sit well with me.

Chapter 4 took this idea even further: “The search for beauty is the real secret of life.” And by Chapter 10, it was clear how devoted to the sensual life Dorian had become, studying perfumes, jewels, and music, and using any evil and sin possible to fill his different senses with some (superficial?) amount of beauty.

I think that both beauty and intellect are worthwhile values and pursuits, and one doesn’t have to harm the other. This book showed how pursuing beauty to an extreme can be damaging, and the same can likely be shown for pursuing intellect alone. But I think each can have their place and merit. I think that in some ways Lord Henry’s (and subsequently Dorian’s) devotion to beauty was admirable in the sense of artistic commitment, but I kept wondering how else Dorian could have pursued and felt beauty without necessarily involving evil.


The role of art in the book’s content

One of the most physical incarnations of beauty in the book that served to demonstrate its power was art, and this art took different forms: paintings, music, and theater. Thus, art played an important role in the actual content of the book and served to illustrate the intoxicating (toxic?) influence of beauty on the characters.

In Chapter 1, Wilde wrote about “art as the reflection of the artist more than the content.” This made think a lot about magic, as a performance usually shows a lot more about the magician and his or her style and character than the art form.

Many important plot elements came to life through the theater and Sibyll Vane’s acting. In Chapter 6, Dorian even said, “I love acting. It is so much more real than life.” This reminded me of the oft-quoted idea that “life imitates art.” The theater played a central role in the book, creating Dorian’s first innocent emotions of love and romance and also spoiling it (and him) in the very same place. The theater was the place where the characters changed into new people, and the events that they saw on stage literally changed them afterwards. Many people think that theater is just for entertainment and to escape boredom (which was Lord Henry’s worst imaginable emotion to feel), but Wilde shows how it can actually have a profound impact on people’s lives, inspiring them for good and for evil.


The role of beauty and art in the book’s writing

What I did enjoy throughout the book the most was the actual beauty and art present in the book’s writing itself. Wilde’s masterful prose was clearly meticulously crafted to make a statement about how the English language can be wielded beautifully to tell a most ugly story. His writing reminded me more of poetry than prose: it was intricate, ornate, and carefully crafted. As Denis Behr remarked, Lord Henry “apparently cannot utter a comment that does not sound like a profound aphorism.” It’s self-evident how hard Wilde worked to literally decorate every page with such aphorisms and witty comments, and in this way, he showed himself to be like an artist with the written word. For me, this is the most inspiring part of this book for magicians learning to better script their effects.


Conclusion

The seventh selection of Half Half Man’s book club was for me a depressing and foreboding tale. It showed the power that beauty and art can have, and it showed how one’s obsessions can lead one to very dark places. Magicians have the power to make fantasy and impossible beauty come to life, and this power should be wielded carefully and towards good end. And they can learn a lot from Wilde’s expert writing and prose -- attention to every detail and making every statement be filled with beauty and purpose.

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Ways of Seeing through Art: Wonder, the Market, and the Capture of Magical Experiences

10/7/2015

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Introduction

The sixth selection of Half Half Man’s Book Club was John Berger’s Ways of Seeing. Based on its own merits, I found it to be a really unique and interesting book about art history (philosophy?) and the way we see the world around us. I loved its unique format of interspersing images with commentary, where the two blended together seamlessly and actually commented on each other.

But in juxtaposition with the previous two books of the Book Club, it was even more compelling and spurred even more ideas (and questions). Ways of Seeing built directly upon Philip Fisher’s Wonder, the Rainbow, and the Aesthetics of Rare Experiences (1) and its themes of wonder through sight and the creation of knowledge. It also reminded me a lot of George Orwell’s Keep the Aspidistra Flying (2) and its themes of commercializing art and the struggle between market demands and artistic integrity. It also spurred many new questions and ideas around the effect of the camera on how we see art (and magic!).


Seeing, Wonder, Knowledge, and Manipulation

The first essay in Ways of Seeing introduced the connection between how we see and what we know, and this idea builds directly on the major themes from Fisher’s Wonder.

John Berger writes, “Seeing comes before words. The child looks and recognizes before it can speak.” This means that before creating any sort of knowledge or communication, one must first see and perceive. This is very similar to Fisher’s writing about wonder. Fisher writes that “Wonder and learning are tied by suddenness... the moment of first seeing... the visual presence of the whole state or object.” He defines “Intuition” as “the visual moment of seeing.”

Not only do the two authors agree that seeing comes before knowledge and words, but they both emphasize that it is through the emotions caused by seeing that we are spurred to think, explore, and create words and make sense of the world. Thus, Fisher writes, “Philosophy begins in wonder.”

Both authors also emphasize the relationship between what we see and what we know. Fisher explains, “From wonder to thought: the passage sets off a chain of experiences built on ever repeated small scale repetitions of the experience of wonder…. Wonder makes us learn and retain in our memory things that until then we were ignorant of.”

Conversely, John Berger points out that “the way we see things is affected by what we know or believe.” And this sight can be influenced by someone else, like a magician or marketer. Berger also explains that “We can only see what we look at.” And one’s look can be manipulated. Not only do magicians have control over what their audience sees and doesn’t see, but the way they see things (“what [they] know or believe”) can be affected by many choices the magician makes. Thus, the core of creating the right experience for our audience is to carefully craft the “sight” the viewer sees and the context (words, stories, beliefs) around that sight.

Words (“philosophy”) are the end result of the process of scientific discovery spurred by wonder. And words can be manipulated just as effectively as what others see. However, the sight (the physical) is still the more powerful influence, no matter what you say or teach someone. Berger writes, “Knowledge of the earth turning doesn't fit the sight of the sun setting.” Even if someone tells you that the sun isn’t really moving down vertically into the ocean, nothing can shake that feeling you get when looking at a sunset over the beach. The "sight" can influenced by the words you use to describe it, but most of what determines your feeling is still the intuitive (the visual).


Art, Magic, and Market Demands

The essays in the middle of Ways of Seeing taught some important historical lessons about the role of paintings in the marketplace, it was interesting for me to learn how the objects depicted inside paintings actually played an important psychological role for their owners.

Berger comments, “Paintings show sights of what a person may possess…. Art [can be seen] as display of property.” To support this, he provides numerous paintings as evidence showing the depictions of many gold objects in luxurious palace rooms filled with even more paintings and art. He explains how the “master” painters of the Renaissance were actually the exceptions to the rule: most painters just focused on creating paintings that gave their owners images of wealth that they could hang in their homes to make themselves feel rich and proud.

Another interpretation he offers is that these opulent paintings served as a way for people to experience a feeling of dreaming and striving; the paintings showed them what wealth could be like and gave them something to hope for. In the same way that a painting can “show sights of what a person may possess,” a magic experience can show sights of what one might be able to do or create. Often by seeing the impossible, we are inspired to work harder and to find new meaning and hope in life. In fact, through the ages, many scientists have similarly been inspired to invent and analyze, energized by the sight of something that most around them considered impossible. I personally find this the most compelling reason to perform magic: creating hope and inspiration to explore what might be possible.

Throughout all his discussion of art and the role of the professional artist, Berger makes several references to the “demands and commissions of the open art market.” This is in direct comparison with the principles inherent in artistic integrity and the artists’ personal choices of subjects and themes. This directly ties into Orwell’s depictions of Gordon Comstock’s depressing struggle between the demands of the market (his job) and his artistic freedom and pursuits. It’s also a vital question that magicians face as well, deciding between opportunities to earn money and staying true to their own artistic principles.


The Effect of the Camera on Art and Magic

One of Berger’s essays has a lot of profound observations about the effect of the camera. He writes, “The invention of the camera changed the way men saw.” Whereas an artist could depict multiple perspectives in a painting or various abstract representations of reality, a camera captures a specific point of view and feeling (within which there can be many details and levels of expression).

Berger explains that “the camera started showing things differently from the imagination and the infinity of perspective of painting.” While a painting is defined completely by the artist’s imagination and can include multiple perspectives, the camera allows the photographer to choose a viewpoint and a subject, but the rest is dictated by reality (and perhaps less the imagination). Drawing parallels to magic, it seems like magic is more like painting in that it is a selective recreation of something in reality by the magician (artist) rather than a perfectly realistic capture of reality; in fact, the magic is defined by the ways in which it achieves things that aren’t possible in reality and which exist in the audience’s imagination: "Magic is in the mind of the spectator -- not in your fingers" (3).

Berger also explains how the camera changes the image it captures: “When the camera reproduces the painting, it destroys the uniqueness of its image. As a result, its meaning changes. Or more exactly its meaning multiplies and fragments into many meanings.” The camera allows for reproduction and mass-dissemination of an image, which makes it available to all but less unique. There is certainly something valuable gained, but Berger reminds us that there is also a cost to this.

In magic, there is a world of difference between live performance versus recording. Everyone hates the notion of “camera tricks,” and the magical feeling is significantly weaker when you don’t experience it in person.

The camera can be seen as a metaphor for technology in general, and similar lessons and cautions can be drawn that apply to magic. Some technology can be enabling, producing new and more powerful experiences, and spreading good knowledge to more people. But other technology can de-humanize the experience and promote shortcuts due to lowered attention span. We should always consider the costs and benefits of new approaches and keep in mind that what has been working effectively for the longest time may have a very good reason for being the way it is already (4).


Conclusion

The sixth selection of Half Half Man’s Book Club was really thought-provoking and fun to read. It directly built upon lessons I learned from the previous two books, and it sparked many new ideas and questions about what it means to see, what an image represents, and how to approach the world (and magic) in a more thoughtful, artistic way. It also makes me wonder what other unique formats for academic books could be interesting, such as interspersing other types of media and perhaps even interactive elements to convey a book’s points. And thus, inspired by the format of Ways of Seeing, I conclude with an image as well.

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References
1. Philip Fisher. Wonder, the Rainbow, and the Aesthetics of Rare Experiences. 2003.
2. George Orwell. Keep the Aspidistra Flying. 1936.
3. John Hamman. The Secrets of Brother John Hamman. 1989.
4. Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder. 2012.
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