Overall, the book reveals a lot of non-intuitive results and poses some interesting questions. I felt after reading some of the stories that I wished they could be expanded on much more than he did, but on the flip side, it was nice to get a bit of subject matter variety in one work.
I recommend this book for people who want to understand dogs and geniuses, as I thought those two subjects were handled superbly.
Below are my notes and takeaways on each sub-article.
Preface
- Other minds discovery for kids: that other minds are different than yours
- Curiosity about the interior of others' heads
- Obsessives and minor geniuses
- Serious problems
- Predictions we make about ppl
- Dog whisperers
- Anthology of his New Yorker articles
- We filter rank and judge all the time but that blocks interestingness
- Assume everything is interesting or will lead to a story
- Find ppl in the middle who do the real work and who aren't self conscious
- Self consciousness is enemy of interestingness
Pitchmen for kitchen appliances
- Product development = marketing
- Tv infomercials for gadgets
- Developed all gadgets at home
- Pitchman real actor
- Secret is the turn: entertainment to business ask for money
- Standard vaudeville gimmicks
- Vegematic perfect combo of tv and gadget
- Product designed to be the star
- Design of product key to its demonstration and enticeability
- Set it and forget it
- QVC million dollars sales in one hour
- Many mustards
- Only one ketchup
- Gray poupon brand strong
- Build a better ketchup
- Worlds best brand
- Sensory segmentation with food
- Power of multiple varieties
- Food of the masses
- Universal
- Heinz pushes all 5 senses
- Sweet sour salty bitter umami
- New ketchups weren't improvements
- Ketchup is ketchup
- Special and different from spaghetti sauce where varieties matter
- Nassim Taleb story
- Expert traders might all just be luck
- Didn't want strategy that could blow up
- Don't believe financial markets are like physical that follow bell curve
- No statistical orderliness
- Only buys options
- Never bets on market move
- Buys puts and calls on hundreds of stocks out of money
- All cash in t-bills
- No matter how much info u know u can't know if ur proposition is true; only if false
- Traditional investing aims to make a little but could lose a lot
- Taleb aims to lose a little but could make a lot
- They just bleed to death but can't blow up
- Lose money 364/365 days
- No feedback daily so really hard for humans
- Set of tricks and protocols
- So he can't cause changes
- Techniques of self control
- More courage and heroism in defying human impulse than taking heroic risks
- Blond hair is her choice
- Jewish girl to acquire higher class through hair
- Disapproving mother in law
- Claroll at home color
- Ad writer for hair color
- Hair ad slogans represented feminism
- Does she or doesn't she
- Immigrants had to be fakers and remake themselves to fit in
- Does she or doesn't she about deeper identity
- Because I'm worth it slogan for l'aureal
- Blondness periodic table depending on color and attitude, specified by famous actresses
- Hair dye is politics, assimilation, self-esteem
- Give meaning to modern consumer through slogans
- Advertising motivational research
- Surveys based on psych, Freud, rorsharck
- Use techniques of healing for selling
- Divorcing women changing hair
- In love with church and inventor of birth control pill
- Always stick to your conscience
- Duplicated natural hormones already in woman's body
- Struggle convincing church it's natural
- Shift from 100 to 400 menses per life because in older societies had more pregnancies and breastfeedings
- More ovulation increase cancer risk and pill decreases back to natural level
- Pill as rhythm method extended which church supports
- But monthly week of pain not necessary and there just to please church
- Japanese women have six times less breast cancer but only in Japan
- Lower fat diet
- Lower weight
- Later puberty and first period
- Gnrh pills could fake body to be a bit menopausal and drastically Lower breast cancer risk
- Pike researcher at balance pharmaceuticals startup in Santa Monica
- Talk about pill as cancer reducer not contraceptive to get church to approve; saving lives
- Rock became less religious
- Cesar
- Make monster dog become sweet
- Interviews parents about dog and its behavior and parents' own upbringing
- Need to practice exercise, discipline, and affection
- Runs dog psychology center in downtown la
- Takes packs of dogs for walks
- Integrates problem dogs into pack
- Then returns to owner
- Prison yard of dogs
- Dog explorer show on tv
- Has presence like teacher
- Throws dogs balls
- Begins and ends game and demands it stop with whistle
- Dog whisperer show
- Dogs are students of human movement unlike other animals
- Dogs really interested in humans
- Your head slant and breathing affect how dog sees you
- How relaxed face is, arms
- Book: The Other End of the Leash
- Owner fear and face causes dogs to attack
- Intention of the movement
- Movement phrasing
- Creates authenticity when done right
- Cesar needed to learn to be ppl whisperer
Open secrets: Enron
- Skilling
- Received huge criminal sentence
- Puzzles vs mysteries
- Puzzles have key, just try to find it
- Mysteries require interpretation
- In mystery, doesn't always help to add more intelligence data
- Enron scandal not a puzzle but a mystery
- Mark to market accounting: real income vs fake unrealized
- As journalists and analysts looked at financials, stock fell
- Watergate was classic puzzle
- Heavy reliance on special purpose vehicles, shadowy side deals
- Didn't communicate essence of transactions to readers of statements
- All spe's were disclosed but thousands of pages long
- 120k pages long
- Puzzle grows simpler with each piece of info
- Mystery gets more complex with more info and layers
- Book: Conspiracy of Fools
- Officers didn't understand the deals themselves
- Disclosure paradigm is an anachronism
- Nazi secret weapon propaganda and puzzle
- Complex issues require mystery paradigm
- Psa screening inconclusive
- Diagnosis transformation from puzzle to mystery with probabilities
- Intelligence in soviet time was puzzle questions; now inundated with info and more a mystery of conflicting data
- Puzzles transmitter dependent
- Mysteries receiver dependent
- Huge gap between reported and taxable income at Enron hard to understand to most
- Mysteries spread blame more
- Homelessness
- Alcoholics
- 1 million in cost per homeless in medical
- Not normal distribution
- Power law distribution
- Extreme concentration of trouble officers
- Middle doesn't need help
- Homelessness power law distro not normal
- 62m spent annually in ny to shelter homeless
- Same guys over and over like lapd problem
- A few bad cases
- Built free apartments for and followed worst homeless cases
- Costs much less than if they were on street
- Emissions similar power law problem
- A small number of cars way higher emotions than almost all
- Some really old cars on road
- Better to do mobile smog testing of vehicles using stedman infrared
- But against our idea that pollution is a problem we all contribute to
- Policing not policy problem
- Small boring solution to big problem doesn't feel good; want sweeping reforms
- Solving power law problems violates our moral and political philosophy
- Special treatment of some; decisions of unfairness just for efficiency
- Some homeless need someone to be in charge of him
- Air force jets killing missile launch sites
- $4M camera
- Idea that photo can't lie
- Actual number of definite kills due to camera was 0
- Mammograms complex
- Skilled pair of fingers very effective at exam
- Modern bombs are now precise
- Now the problem is the precision of info needed
- Dcis diagnosis unclear when see it in mammogram
- We see more that we don't know how to interpret
- Mammo decreases cancer risk by 10%
- Plagiarism
- Someone had stolen lewis's essence for a new play
- Copyright violations by play
- Borrowing as compliment
- Lots of music borrows and remakes
- Copyrights and patents balance between property rights and public benefits from disclosure and progress and availability/access
- Lots of patterns of influence in music
- Difference between ideas and things; copying idea doesn't take from me but saves u the work to create
- Borrowing that's transformative vs derivative
- Play writer borrowed from his article
- Borrowing someone's life not ok
- Syrian attack on Israel
- Sept 11
- Book: the sell
- Couldn't see the pattern
- We revise data after attack
- Problem of noise in intelligence gathering
- Creeping determinism where we rewrite our past probabilities
- Create clashes in group to prevent groupthink
- False alarms from sensitivity lower sensitivity after
- Tennis players failing under pressure
- Talented ppl fail sometimes
- Implicit learning and muscle memory
- In conditions of stress, explicit system takes over and u lose ur unconscious touch
- Stress wipes out short term memory
- Panic causes perceptual narrowing
- Choking about thinking too much
- Panic about thinking too little
- Choking is forgetting instinct
- Panic is reversion to instinct
- How failure happens affects our understanding of why it happens
- Kennedy air crash: failed under pressure
- Book: Inside the Sky
- Inability to sense experientially what plane doing
- Panicking is conventional failure
- Kennedy panicked
- Choking is paradoxical failure
- Stereotype threat of ethnic students doing worse on tests
- Choking is second guessing
- Stereotype threat creates choking not panic
- Rituals of disaster
- Desire not to give up
- Disasters inherent in complex tech systems
- Challenger wasnt anomaly; because everyone did exactly what they were supposed to do
- Assume that risks are manageable but wrong
- Three mile island near disaster
- Not just about human error
- 5 malfunctions each trivial but combined and interacted to make big problem
- "normal accident"
- Combos of minor normal failures of tech system
- Culture of NASA in challenger
- Another view: how humans handle risk
- Risk homeostasis theory
- Book: Target Risk
- Changes that appear to make org safer don't
- Humans compensate for lower risk in one are with more in another area
- Abs brakes made drivers riskier
- More pedestrians killed at marked crossings
- More poisonings after child proof pill bottles came out
Late bloomers: why we equate genius with precocity
- Ben fountain writer success not breakthrough
- Took 18 years
- Quit job
- Had 30 rejections for 1 published
- Poets peak young
- Study found no relation in poetry publication and youth
- Picasso young bloomer but cesanne late bloomer
- Writer collected articles he loved and interested in
- Traveled to Haiti because was interested
- Learned visual language from visual dictionaries and architecture books
- Late bloomers experimenters and researchers, trial and error
- Early bloomers conceptual, visionary
- experimental artists improve skills over time, learn from each piece
- Searching vs finding
- Mark twain experimenter and revised huck Finn for 10 years
- Conceptual vs experimental
- Late bloomer resembles a failure for a while
- We prematurely judge late bloomers and thwart many
- Need support and patrons
- Late bloomers depend on others
- Late bloomer stories love story
- Drafting football players
- Teaching profession hard to predict how one will do
- Value add calculation of test score improvement
- Difference between good and bad huge
- Test scores and teaching creds not related to performance
- Financial advisors do well at hiring
- Lower standards and judge after they try
- Apprenticeship camp
- Psychoanalyze criminals and bomb notes
- Profiler goes from deeds to man description, not opposite prediction
- Organized vs unorganized killers
- Crime scene reveals personality
- Profiles too general and use cold reading tricks
Talent myth: is it overrated
- McKinsey study
- Book: War for Talent
- Talent mindset
- CEOs of best companies obsessed with hiring stars
- McKinsey billings motivation
- Enron hired McKinsey a ton
- Enron was ultimate talent company
- What if Enron failed because of its mindset
- Differentiation and affirmation of employees annually
- A's promoted, c's fired
- Rank and yank
- Practical tacit knowledge unrelated to iq
- Ranking fighter pilots easier than managers
- Use criteria as specific as possible
- Talent separated from performance
- Catering to keep employees happy
- Enron was place where stars did whatever wanted
- Good businesses determined by attractiveness to employees not customers or profits
- Pet projects
- Greedy vs narcissistic corporation
- Some hold fixed view of intelligence vs malleable
- If celebrated only for talent instead of malleability then more likely to lie when self image threatened and less likely to work on self improvement
- Organizations make ppl smart not other way around
- P&g, southwest, Walmart use different management principles than Enron
The new boy network: what job interviews really tell us
- Quick instinct u get after first few minutes of interview
- Snap judgments
- Can rate teachers on 2 second silent video
- Humans don't need to know someone to believe u know someone
- Power of first impressions
- Same judgment after 1 semester with teacher as after 2 sec
- First impression leads to confirmation bias
- How we behave more affected by situation than traits
- Don't draw broad conclusions
- Ask specific situational questions that reveal one small detail
- Not classic questions with right answers
- Structured interview only one with value
Troublemakers: pit bulls teach us about crime
- Bred for aggression
- Generalizations
- Profile terrorists hard
- Testing study found pit bulls less aggressive
- Just some bad examples
- Category problem
- Pit bulls not more dangerous but more numerous
- Bad owners create bad dogs

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